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URI The formation and revision of intuitions (2023) [pdf]
nico wrote 18 hours 12 min ago:
> Many choose to uphold their intuition, even when directly
confronted with simple arithmetic that contradicts it
My experience agrees with that, both being stubborn myself and also
being on the receiving end of that
I wonder if there is a benefit to sticking with our intuition even if
we are wrong in the moment
For example, my intuition might lead me to start a business. I might
fail and you could say my intuition was wrong, because it led me down
the wrong path. But maybe I start a second business, incorporating my
lessons from the first one, and now itâs successful. Was my intuition
now right?
ajkjk wrote 11 hours 14 min ago:
I feel like a lot of the time people's mathematically incorrect
intuitions are exactly right if you were asking a slightly different
question. What's abnormal is the person who's evaluating their
intuition by asking tricky questions that aren't very compatible with
how human thinking works. Notably nobody would ask questions in real
life the way these trick questions are asked. I like the notion that
the problem is in the asker!
Like the question in the article whether a person is more likely to
be a banker or (banker and feminist). Probability says the former is
a mathematical uncertainty. The human intuition gets it wrong but
it's solving a different question, because the category of 'banker'
is a type of person than (banker and feminist). The mathematically
wrong answer that intuition gives is expressing which category makes
more sense for the person, and it's right about that-- it is just not
an answer that should be interpreted as a probability.
The human brain doesn't work on probabilities, but it will try to
answer questions of them anyway, misapplying it's otherwise effective
circuitry instead.
ajkjk wrote 11 hours 13 min ago:
Incidentally for the bat and ball problem the way it feels to not
mess it up is to install a sort of 'trap' that says 'this is a
trick question, kick out to mathematical thinking instead'. Which
works but it's not the same as making it intuitive.
flawsofar wrote 13 hours 26 min ago:
> I wonder if there is a benefit to sticking with our intuition even
if we are wrong in the moment
I donât bother optimizing small costs out of my life
random3 wrote 13 hours 57 min ago:
The thing with intuition vs arithmetic is that intuition sums up both
conscious and unconscious knowledge. Often thereâs more, deeper
that happens unconsciously. So, in reality, a strong intuition may be
fooled by otherwise simplistic arithmetic that fails to represent the
essence of the intuition.
That is not to say that if your intuition results in incorrect
arithmetic/logic it would make any sense to stick to it :))
esafak wrote 15 hours 14 min ago:
> I wonder if there is a benefit to sticking with our intuition even
if we are wrong in the moment
The evidence or your reading of it could be wrong, and it saves you
mental energy.
Jensson wrote 15 hours 43 min ago:
But unlike simpler situations starting a business isn't something
with a known answer how it will go, so there you need to listen to
your intuition, but in other cases like physics you should listen to
the math and theory.
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