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       COMMENT PAGE FOR:
   URI   Reality has a surprising amount of detail (2017)
       
       
        rnewme wrote 4 hours 17 min ago:
        Thus might be a false memory, but didn't authors blog used to have a
        post on game development topic?
       
        ChrisMarshallNY wrote 4 hours 49 min ago:
        > But as you actually start building you’ll find there’s a
        surprising amount of nuance.
        
        This has been my experience, building anything; especially shipping
        anything.
        
        In my experience, shipping is orders of magnitude more involved than
        authoring.
        
        There's ten million stupid little details, that pop up when least
        convenient. Experience has taught me to anticipate these details. Many
        times, they should be mitigated from the very start (security and
        localization are good examples).
        
        That's why I tend to write every one of my projects -even "farting
        around" ones- as if they were shipping products.
        
        Keeps me in practice.
        
        Also, this is one of the areas where it really pays to have experienced
        engineers.
       
        fennecbutt wrote 5 hours 10 min ago:
        My thoughts exactly when it comes to simulating the real world for
        games, etc. An accurate simulation is only good for science, otherwise
        there's boundless detail that we don't pay attention to in the real
        world. Part of that I think is that we can examine anything in front of
        us in detail, but trying to recall the exact pattern or shade of colour
        of something arbitrary like the footpath outside your favourite café
        is impossible. We just can't do it.
       
          flippyhead wrote 4 hours 54 min ago:
          This is true, but I sometimes find myself, nonetheless, wishing in
          some game that I could stop, pull out a microscrope or something, and
          go muuuuch deeper.
       
        lynguist wrote 15 hours 18 min ago:
        > ‘Spirit’ thermometers, made using brandy and other liquors, were
        in common use in the early days of thermometry. They were even
        considered as a potential standard fluid for thermometers. It wasn’t
        until the careful work of Swiss physicist Jean-André De Luc in the
        18th century that physicists realized that alcohol thermometers are
        highly nonlinear and highly variable depending on concentration, which
        is in turn hard to measure.
        
        During Deluc's time in the 18th century Geneva was not part of
        Switzerland, thus Deluc was Genevan/Genevese, not Swiss.
        
        Geneva was an independent city republic with centuries of history until
        Napoleon (1798) when it was incorporated into France. After Napoleon
        during the Vienna Congress of 1815 - in the 19th century - Geneva
        joined Switzerland.
        
        Other people from Geneva of the same time period include Rodolphe
        Töpffer, the first comic book artist, and Jean-Jacques Rousseau.
        
        We don't use today's political borders for historic figures.
       
        tombert wrote 16 hours 46 min ago:
        A bit tangential, but I have been playing the game "Pinball FX" a lot.
        I really like it (and especially its spin-off/expansion Pinball M), but
        it's surprisingly taxing on my computer.
        
        I mentioned this to a friend, and he was kind of confused,
        understandably so, and said "...it's pinball...why is that taxing?"
        
        It's not a dumb question, we have had virtual pinball games since the
        Atari 2600 at least, and even pretty fun stuff on the Amiga and DOS
        like Pinball Dreams and Epic Pinball, so why would a modern pinball
        game make my relatively beefy laptop struggle playing it?
        
        The answer is because virtual pinball occupies a strange kind of space
        in the world of video games, in that they're trying to emulate
        something that is entirely dependent on extremely precise and subtle
        physics.  It's not like you can really have too accurate of physics;
        the better the physics, the closer it is to a "real" pinball machine,
        and generally speaking the more fun the game is.
        
        As such, I think you could honestly make a pinball game that taxes any
        hardware.  You'll never be able to have "perfect" physics (as in
        physics that completely and totally imitate reality), you can only get
        asymptotically close to "perfect", and the closer you are, the more
        taxing the computation will end up being.
        
        It just made me think, this applies to nearly anything.  We all work
        with abstractions, but if dive into the details of something and
        recurse, it's not like it ever ends.
       
          quantum_state wrote 3 hours 58 min ago:
          There is a limit of the tax on hardware set by the sensory
          resolutions of the game player since anything beyond is not
          perceivable.
       
            tombert wrote 1 hour 2 min ago:
            Is that actually true? That might be true on a small enough time
            step but there’s enough variation in every physical component of
            the machine that I think chaos theory would take over in a
            relatively short amount of time.  The ball could fly across the
            machine in radically different ways even with seemingly the same
            inputs.
            
            Obviously there’s are ways of spoofing even that, just adding
            some randomness probably helps a lot.
       
          mrob wrote 5 hours 52 min ago:
          Ball movement on a real pinball machine is three dimensional. The
          game is designed to keep the ball in contact with the playfield
          surface as much as possible, but in practice there are lots of
          imperfections and awkwardly shaped features that can make the ball
          bounce vertically if it hits them at the right angle. It can
          sometimes bounce violently enough to hit the glass. This is
          especially common when you have multiple balls in play. A 2D
          simulation isn't enough.
       
            tombert wrote 1 hour 5 min ago:
            Yeah, exactly my point.
            
            There’s always an infinite number of variables in a real pinball
            machine. Slight imperfections in the playfield surface making it
            not completely flat, slight imperfections in the shape of the ball
            so it’s not a perfect sphere, slight imperfections in the shape
            of the bumper. I could keep going, but I think there’s literally
            billions of potential variables that can modify the game.
            
            These might seem insignificant, and in some cases they are, but
            it’s a chaos theory thing; small imperfections multiplied across
            enough of a timescale become pretty significant, and that’s a
            large part of what makes real pinball so much fun.
            
            Of course there’s plenty of things we can do to approximate
            reality; adding a bit of randomness to the experience probably
            provides enough chaos to give us something more or less like
            reality in a lot of cases, but that is just an optimization hack.
       
          accrual wrote 10 hours 35 min ago:
          Good story for getting a handle on the idea. It kind of reminded me
          of fractals and how we find some parallels between phenomena at every
          scale, e.g. galaxies and rotating water as it flows down your drain.
       
          suby wrote 16 hours 24 min ago:
          I don't actually know, but I'd wager a lot that it's the graphics
          rather than the physics which causes the game to be slow. Generally
          the expensive thing in video games is rendering. Computing the next
          world state is generally relatively cheap, especially if we're
          talking about a confined area with a very small number of rigid
          bodies (the ball, flippers, bumpers). A pinball game like Pinball FX
          that's rendering a 3d world with lighting, it'd just be shocking to
          me if the physics were to blame for the performance.
       
            jjmarr wrote 12 hours 42 min ago:
            Here's a gif on how a real pinball bumper works: [1] It's not
            really a rigid body, it's a dynamic component that squeezes the
            ball.
            
   URI      [1]: https://www.reddit.com/r/mechanical_gifs/comments/aflmj7/h...
       
              ninetyninenine wrote 11 hours 40 min ago:
              Nah. This is easily emulated with an impulse force. The outcome a
              nanosecond after the ball leaves the bumper is just an impulse.
              Users can't tell the difference.
       
                kvdveer wrote 6 hours 48 min ago:
                While that could be an acceptable simplification on the
                aforementioned Amiga, it breaks down when multiple balls are in
                play, if the friction between the top and bottom plate differ
                (introducing spin) or when the ball doesn't hit the bumper
                exactly straight on the y axis.
                
                Generally speaking, there are many ways you can simplify the
                game by sacrificing precison. This is exactly the kind of
                detail the original article is about. Ones simplified model of
                the world is always incomplete, and there are always surprising
                ways in which it will fall short.
       
            rachofsunshine wrote 16 hours 13 min ago:
            Especially with such a small number of rigid bodies to worry about.
            The literal only thing that has to collide with anything else is
            the pinball itself, unless we're talking about a pretty weird
            pinball machine.
       
            tombert wrote 16 hours 22 min ago:
            Yeah fair, it's tough to say; they're simulating a few non-obvious
            things too, like ball spin, but it's possible it's mostly graphics.
            
            I think my overall point still stands, but you might be right.
            
            ETA:
            
            I would like to point out that my dad was debating buying one of
            those virtual pinball tables, and so we played one at a mall, it
            was decidedly not fun.    The physics were way too floaty, and didn't
            feel good at all.  It looked like they were running it on some
            shitty Android and just mounted a big TV.
            
            That's why I thought that maybe it was the physics in PinballFX
            slowing things down.
       
              ninetyninenine wrote 11 hours 38 min ago:
              I bet it has nothing to do with the graphics or the physics and
              everything to do with the fact that you can't feel the ball.
              There's vibrations that can be felt when you play with a real
              pinball machine.
       
                tombert wrote 11 hours 5 min ago:
                That's definitely part of it, but even when I play Pinball FX
                on my laptop with a keyboard, it still feels better than the
                one I tried at the mall.
                
                The one I felt at the mall kind of felt like I was playing on
                the moon.  The ball felt really floaty and the way the ball
                bounced off the walls and bumpers just didn't feel or look
                right.
                
                Adding some kind of "thumper" feedback would have certainly
                helped the experience though.
       
              bostonpete wrote 12 hours 50 min ago:
              Ball spin would be trivial to simulate. The only way I could see
              the physics getting at all expensive is if they went overboard
              with fluid dynamics
       
                amarant wrote 12 hours 3 min ago:
                Simulating airdrag and turbulence the compute-intensive way:
                simulating all of the air inside the pinball machine! You've
                got a few tens of liters of gaseous molecules to keep track of,
                should be enough to slow down most computers I would guess!
                
                But I would be very surprised if any pinball software actually
                does that!
       
                  tombert wrote 11 hours 3 min ago:
                  No one does it yet! Someone should import OpenFOAM into
                  Unreal and make this happen.  I want my pinball experience to
                  require a dedicated server to help it.
       
                    luqtas wrote 6 hours 2 min ago:
                    "just train a generative model to emulate the experience"
                    /s
       
              sjs382 wrote 16 hours 11 min ago:
              Have you seen the virtual pinball tables that emulate depth by
              tracking your head? It's a great effect
       
                Sophira wrote 9 hours 6 min ago:
                It sounds cool, but because you won't be getting different
                views from both eyes, I can imagine the brain is probably going
                to be fairly confused by it.
       
                tombert wrote 16 hours 5 min ago:
                I have not, that sounds pretty cool. That might make the
                machines more fun, or at least feel more realistic.
                
                I think having something more or less like a rumble feature
                would do a lot too.  Even if you just had a solenoid that
                thumps when hitting a bumper would make it feel a lot more
                realistic.
       
        GMoromisato wrote 18 hours 55 min ago:
        I wonder if this is one reason why AI seems to have scaling limits. If
        building stairs is decomposed into n-steps, and each of those steps is
        decomposed into n-steps, and you keep on decomposing for L levels, then
        each time you want an extra level of detail you need n-times the
        training data/training time.
       
          ninetyninenine wrote 14 hours 34 min ago:
          No it’s rather obvious why. It’s not a scaling issue otherwise
          humans wouldn't be able to exist. It’s missing data. It’s like
          trying to learn to swim by watching other swimmers only. You can keep
          watching more and more of this but there’s limits.
          
          There are two things that enable us to do it. First we have prebuilt
          application specific brains. Our neural networks are geared towards
          specialized thinking related to human living without any training
          needed. LLMs are free form intelligences with no bias. To bring it
          back to the analogy, do you really need to teach a beaver to swim if
          it was always raised on land?
          
          Second text and visual data alone is not enough information to build
          a model of the world. As humans we have more data and we can control
          data. Meaning we see, hear, listen, and importantly we can place
          inputs into the data and observe differences in outputs.
          
          This is why alpha go is so powerful. It’s able to get the input
          data and observe the output and learn. LLMs don’t do this on an
          automated basis yet.
       
        karparov wrote 19 hours 18 min ago:
        And this is one of the main utilitarian arguments for diversity in
        teams. If everybody has the same socio-cultural background, it's harder
        to leave the frame.
       
          timewizard wrote 7 hours 2 min ago:
          It seems like you want a diversity /of/ teams,    not specifically /in/
          teams,    as human competition is the best known way to advance the
          scope of the frame in general.
       
          akoboldfrying wrote 14 hours 35 min ago:
          It's a sound argument.
          
          The argument that culturally homogeneous teams perform better due to
          more efficient communication (more is "already understood" at the
          outset, so there's less need to communicate explicitly, and fewer
          misunderstandings) is also sound.
          
          So from a purely team-performance-maximising perspective, the
          question is: Which coefficient is higher? (More generally: What level
          of mixture is optimal?)
       
            tikhonj wrote 7 min ago:
            One aspect seems pretty clear to me: it's much easier to learn how
            to communicate effectively as a team than it is to massively
            broaden your collective knowledge and experience.
            
            So, given a sound team culture and environment—great regardless
            of the style of team you have!—you can start with a diverse team
            and then collectively improve team cohesion and communication. You
            need some baseline level of effective leadership to do this, but
            it's absolutely doable, and I've seen it done.
       
            atq2119 wrote 3 hours 24 min ago:
            There's no one size fits all answer to that.
            
            A team that develops a user interface benefits more from "generic"
            cultural diversity (gender, ethnicity, social class, etc.) than a
            team that builds a processor microarchitecture.
            
            But the latter team can still benefit from diversity: if it's all
            EEs, they'll probably do worse than a team that also has a
            mathematician, a physicist, a chemical engineer, a finance person,
            etc on it.
            
            On the other hand, the processor team's communication might be
            smoother with an all EE team of high "generic" diversity than it
            would be with all white guys but from very different academic
            backgrounds.
            
            If you have decent retention, the team will develop its own
            communication style anyway, so I suspect this factor doesn't matter
            as much.
       
            procaryote wrote 4 hours 4 min ago:
            > The argument that culturally homogeneous teams perform better due
            to more efficient communication (more is "already understood" at
            the outset, so there's less need to communicate explicitly, and
            fewer misunderstandings) is also sound.
            
            Did you just define Groupthink, but in positive sounding words?
       
            rramadass wrote 12 hours 47 min ago:
            > The argument that culturally homogeneous teams perform better due
            to more efficient communication (more is "already understood" at
            the outset, so there's less need to communicate explicitly, and
            fewer misunderstandings) is also sound.
            
            False Equivalence.
            
            Efficient Communication is secondary to Different Whats and Whys
            which is what a diverse collection of people from different
            cultural backgrounds bring to the table. A single idea communicated
            however imperfectly can change the world. This is the reason "equal
            opportunities" should be guaranteed to all even though "equal
            outcomes" cannot be guaranteed.
            
            So define a "suitable standard requirement" for a specific role and
            try and collect a diverse group of people who meet those criteria.
       
              tbrownaw wrote 11 hours 9 min ago:
              > This is the reason "equal opportunities" should be guaranteed
              to all
              
              Oh silly me, I thought the reason was that it follows naturally
              from everyone having equal moral worth.
       
                rramadass wrote 6 hours 2 min ago:
                Yes, silly you; my comment was in the context of the
                parent/grandparent talking about "team composition" (presumably
                w.r.t. an objective/goal/job) and not a judgement on
                ethics/morals (different discussion).
       
            sfink wrote 14 hours 21 min ago:
            My suspicion is that this is not answerable in general.
            
            To a first approximation: whichever of the two your political
            leanings make you more comfortable with.
            
            To a second approximation: if your task is efficiency at a
            constrained task, homogeneity. If your task requires exploration
            and/or creativity, heterogeneity.
            
            To a third approximation: the 2nd approximation argument, except
            the demands of nearly all tasks change over time.
            
            Then you factor in the environment, including your management's
            competence at eliciting the value of various team members, etc.
            
            And don't forget risk. Optimizing for a high level of performance
            in any dimension makes things brittle in all other dimensions.
       
        henjodottech wrote 21 hours 29 min ago:
        Thought this would reference reality being encoded in 10^120 bits.
       
        handedness wrote 22 hours 59 min ago:
        Previous discussions:
        
   URI  [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/from?site=johnsalvatier.org
       
        snikeris wrote 23 hours 6 min ago:
        > If you wish to not get stuck, seek to perceive what you have not yet
        perceived
        
        This may seem like impractical advice. How does one increase the scope
        of perception? Personally, I’ve found that a meditation practice
        leads to this.
       
          bwfan123 wrote 1 hour 30 min ago:
          Physicist Bohm has written about this. That, the beginning of new
          perception is in mindful listening or mindful awareness.. But most of
          us are stuck in our thought-rut preventing this.
          Perception itself carves out categories almost unconsciously leading
          to the thought-rut we are in. ie, Bootstrapping the perception of new
          detail in everyday life is very hard.
       
          rachofsunshine wrote 16 hours 9 min ago:
          The way I did it was by deliberately going against my normal
          impulses. The rule was "whatever you would normally do, do the
          opposite of that". If you would stay home, go out. If you would eat a
          steak, eat spaghetti instead. If you would get drunk, stay sober. If
          you would stay sober, get drunk. Basically, as long as it's not
          something that's likely to do irrevocable harm, do things that don't
          seem like good ideas and just see what happens.
          
          The limits on our experiences are usually self-imposed by the fact
          that we tend to make specific choices limited to specific contexts.
          The experiences you have are the experiences that derive from what
          you think is a good idea. So doing things you think are bad ideas
          tends to result in a lot of new experiences.
       
          _def wrote 19 hours 14 min ago:
          Talk to another human
       
          patcon wrote 19 hours 36 min ago:
          I always think of it as learning to see hidden dimensions, and once
          seen, investigate deeper or just imagine transformations of that
          dimension -- extrapolation, inversion, etc. Once found, you can drag
          around these hidden dimensions from one domain or one instance to the
          next.
          
          Like sometimes I seem to be in alignment with someone, but things
          feel off. I once realized the "off" feeling was because I was running
          toward something I believed in, and they're running away from another
          thing that scared them. It's only circumstantial we were
          intellectually walking in the same direction, so I tread thoughtfully
          in collaboration with this person. It's attractive force vs
          repulsive.
          
          Once I knew to look for this "away vs toward" dimension, I see it
          often :)
       
            bwfan123 wrote 1 hour 13 min ago:
            very nicely articulated.. so, you are suggesting to be "sensitive"
            to "feelings" - such the one of being "off" - since feelings
            primarily provoke thought. Another feeling that i have is one of
            "inconsistency" - again it feels like something is off, and you are
            suggesting to pursue this feeling rather than to brush it aside.
       
          tippytippytango wrote 22 hours 27 min ago:
          Don’t ignore any question is the strategy I’ve found. The problem
          is that some questions fall just below the conscious threshold.
          Meditation seems to help dredge up the questions and take them
          seriously.
       
            andhuman wrote 8 hours 59 min ago:
            For me meditation makes me better at, let’s call it
            meta-thinking. Being aware of what I’m thinking, instead of just
            thinking.
       
          thenobsta wrote 22 hours 41 min ago:
          Meditation has totally helped me widen my scope and soften my
          awareness. I've found these two exercises also help me get out of my
          default mode of perception.
          
          Image Streaming[1] is a fun little exercise that has helped me expand
          my perception of things or problems. I try to do it in a very high
          dynamic range way -- where I zoom out of a scene describe it in
          detail and then zoom in a describe it in detail.
          
          There is also a fun improv exercise where you walk around looking at
          objects and calling it the wrong name. It sort of gets you our of
          default mode and you start seeing things 'differently' (a touch more
          vivid). I think the exercise is described in Impro by Keith
          Johnstone.
          
          [1] 
          
   URI    [1]: https://winwenger.com/resources/cps-techniques/image-streami...
       
            bwfan123 wrote 8 min ago:
            Mathematician David Bessis describes similar exercises in his book
            [ref] - wherein he explores a room blindfolded to awaken other
            senses, or visualize the places he has been to.
            
            [ref]
            
   URI      [1]: https://www.amazon.com/Mathematica-Secret-World-Intuition-...
       
            thenobsta wrote 22 hours 38 min ago:
            Found a link to a description of the exercise.
            
   URI      [1]: https://www.ribbonfarm.com/2010/01/23/impro-by-keith-johns...
       
        richx wrote 23 hours 23 min ago:
        This is what the DOGE guys don’t understand: even if it seems you can
        easily replace something, you will find out that the devil is in the
        detail.
       
          zmgsabst wrote 6 hours 3 min ago:
          Reality being more complicated than a model is precisely their point:
          
          The vision of a technocratic bureaucracy isn’t workable given the
          complexity of life — so we need to distribute decisions to be made
          in context. We’re paying huge sums for a technocratic system that
          can’t account for the actual needs and which leads to suboptimal
          outcomes.
          
          Dismantling the regulatory state and attendant bureaucracy creates
          room for better, localized, contextual systems to flourish.
       
            kelnos wrote 5 hours 24 min ago:
            > Dismantling the regulatory state and attendant bureaucracy
            creates room for better, localized, contextual systems to flourish.
            
            And I guess it doesn't matter how many people will be hurt during
            the churn...
            
            But regardless, DOGE's goal isn't to make government better, it's
            to make government broken and cheap, so it will be easier to funnel
            money to Musk's (and other Trump cronies') companies instead.
       
          timewizard wrote 6 hours 57 min ago:
          This is what the critics fail to understand:  this all should be
          documented because it's public work.  There should be no "secret
          sauce" in the bureaucracy nor should the process be so abstract and
          complex that the hidden details are the most pertinent ones.
          
          Government should not involve arcane wizardry nor should imputed
          mastery of it be held as an excuse to prevent it's modification to
          meet the will of the voters.
       
          angst_ridden wrote 22 hours 20 min ago:
          Never ask ol' Chesterfield about his fence.
       
            rzzzt wrote 21 hours 34 min ago:
            Ahem, "blow some my way"! For fence-related matters Chesterton is
            the person to ask.
       
          shawndumas wrote 22 hours 26 min ago:
          second system syndrome
       
          amrodst wrote 22 hours 42 min ago:
          Removing something critical and seeing what happens is a methodology
          used by Musk in all his companies: remove LIDAR from self driving
          car, remove flame trench from spaceship launch pad, etc. Results may
          vary.
       
            andrewflnr wrote 22 hours 26 min ago:
            "Results may vary" is not an acceptable methodology for the US
            Government, when millions of lives are potentially at stake.
            
            Ed: among the ways millions of lives could be lost: losing control
            of our nuclear arsenal or nuclear materials due to haphazardly
            firing people responsible for maintaining them. Bungling the
            response to the next pandemic, due to haphazardly firing people,
            cutting science funding and deleting inconvenient data. Starvation
            and disease from ceasing aid around the world. There's also the
            wars likely to result from the collapse of trust in the US as a
            security partner, but I suppose it's not correct to blame that on
            DOGE per se, even if it's an extension of the same principle.
       
              nuancebydefault wrote 20 hours 13 min ago:
              Sometimes people (e.g. US voters) will only learn by running into
              a wall. How all exactly will turn out is hard to tell and frankly
              maybe we better don't know. I'm tending to the conclusion there's
              no way around the movement of the big picture, the shifting of
              geo-political order in the world.
       
                andrewflnr wrote 15 hours 41 min ago:
                Certainly, global trust in the US is already gone. That's
                locked in for the foreseeable future.
       
              MichaelZuo wrote 22 hours 18 min ago:
              This seems circular, since your opinion, views, thoughts, etc.,
              are what the opposing factions are rejecting ( or
              de-legitimizing) in the first place.
       
                andrewflnr wrote 21 hours 59 min ago:
                People disagree with my opinion, therefore it's circular?
                Interesting logic.
       
                  MichaelZuo wrote 21 hours 46 min ago:
                  Did you read the remainder of the comment?
                  
                  It seems pretty clear to me at least why it would lead to
                  circular arguments.
       
                    andrewflnr wrote 21 hours 7 min ago:
                    At this point, I've presented a handful of fairly
                    straightforward hypotheses about cause and effect. They
                    could be wrong, but it's on you to show that they're
                    actually self-referential. There is no amount or kind of
                    other people's opinions that will make them so.
       
                      MichaelZuo wrote 18 hours 25 min ago:
                      Your opinions do not automatically turn into credible
                      “hypotheses”…?
                      
                      There is no such mechanism.
                      
                      If there was then the vast majority of political debates
                      on HN wouldn’t even exist.
       
                        andrewflnr wrote 17 hours 53 min ago:
                        Who said a hypothesis is automatically credible? Not
                        me.
       
                          MichaelZuo wrote 15 hours 37 min ago:
                          If they’re not credible… then why would any one
                          care…?
                          
                          Readers are just going to assume it’s random noise,
                          or at least indistinguishable from noise, from a
                          rando on the internet.
       
                            andrewflnr wrote 15 hours 30 min ago:
                            That's equally true of all internet comments. None
                            of us here on HN have or are claiming automatic
                            credibility. We just make arguments that make sense
                            to us. Feel free to close the tab if you don't find
                            any value in this activity.
       
                              MichaelZuo wrote 13 hours 51 min ago:
                              So then what makes your opinions
                              “hypotheses”?
                              
                              Sufficient chimpanzees with keyboards, or an LLM,
                              can also type out every comment you’ve ever
                              written, including the last few.
       
                                andrewflnr wrote 13 hours 43 min ago:
                                
                                
   URI                          [1]: https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictio...
       
                                  MichaelZuo wrote 13 hours 2 min ago:
                                  I clearly don’t think your opinions match
                                  the definition found in merriam webster… or
                                  else I wouldn’t have asked.
       
          lolinder wrote 22 hours 53 min ago:
          Can we please not DOGEify every comment thread? I know that it's on a
          lot of minds all the time, but we have a whole spot on the front page
          effectively reserved for DOGE 24/7, and I'd like to see literally
          anything else in the other 29 slots.
       
            cbracketdash wrote 21 hours 16 min ago:
            I agree its quite annoying. But it only comes up because of the
            massive change it will cause across the whole country and it's
            important to remain prepared for implications.
       
              lolinder wrote 21 hours 4 min ago:
              A large percentage of HN's population doesn't live in the US, and
              many of those of us who do have other ways of keeping track of
              what's going on. Threads about DOGE on HN are not useful, they're
              almost always just flame wars. Those who feel enlightened by them
              can join the daily thread that inevitably pops up and leave the
              rest of us to talk about other things.
       
                nuancebydefault wrote 20 hours 6 min ago:
                In fact there are much worse things going on in the world than
                the hollowing of US' institutions. Let's just root for those
                people in need.
       
                  cbracketdash wrote 19 hours 20 min ago:
                  I apologize for my naïevty: I guess I live in a bubble
       
            tomrod wrote 22 hours 25 min ago:
            It's timely, current, and surprisingly related. I see no issue
            here. See my sister comment as to why.
       
            bigstrat2003 wrote 22 hours 31 min ago:
            Agreed. People are unhealthily obsessed with DOGE here. And on top
            of that, basically every DOGE thread turns into a flame war. It's
            extremely deleterious for the site to have everything collapse into
            DOGE talk.
       
              cma wrote 18 hours 40 min ago:
              Thiel was part of ycombinator for a time, current head of yc
              worked for Palantir and has been working on DOGE-related Curtis
              Yarvin type stuff, so it is likely to come up here a lot.
       
              theshackleford wrote 19 hours 7 min ago:
              If my countries institutions were being dismantled by chuds via
              dubious and unprecedented means I’d be pretty obsessed.
       
          tomrod wrote 23 hours 1 min ago:
          On reading the article before the comments, I literally was
          remembering Musk's initial descriptions of The Boring Company and how
          they were wildly forgetting or glossing over key details that would
          mean the difference between exciting leap forward to terrifying death
          trap.
          
          I find your comment to be the same idea, but on something folks have
          foisted upon them and are forced to experience.
       
            dartos wrote 22 hours 56 min ago:
            Ignoring details has been very lucrative for Musk.
            
            Remember when he said self driving is coming next year… every
            year… since 2017
       
              majkinetor wrote 22 hours 35 min ago:
              Indeed, Musk is the first and only man to ever do that.
       
                dartos wrote 22 hours 0 min ago:
                Far from it!
                
                But he is by far the most successful one.
                
                At the very least the loudest successful one.
       
          yapyap wrote 23 hours 15 min ago:
          They don’t care.
          
          They don’t care about ‘saving money’, they’re just messing
          about to see if they can. To move the goalpost of what is acceptable.
          To goosestep the United States back into a Russia-aligned nation that
          lets rich people pluck the poors bald like chickens.
       
            dartos wrote 22 hours 55 min ago:
            > To move the goalpost of what is acceptable
            
            Not just that. They’re gish galloping the courts and the news.
            
            So many things, some dumb, some dangerous, some contradictory.
            
            The goal is to make it impossible to o keep track of what’s going
            on.
       
            BlackjackCF wrote 23 hours 4 min ago:
            The cruelty is the point.
       
        pphysch wrote 23 hours 31 min ago:
        I attended a woo-woo university course, where the instructor invited a
        interpretative dancer to give a lesson.
        
        The dancer bright out some paper, pencils, and almonds, and had
        everyone spend half an hour silently writing about their single almond.
        As it turns out, it's easier than it sounds; time passed quick and I
        (and most others) never felt bored. There's always more room for
        observation and analysis.
        
        It struck me as a critical life lesson about the power of perception
        and attention. Every moment is infinite, and therefore it's a fool's
        task to try and learn/experience "everything".
       
          nicklaf wrote 13 hours 1 min ago:
          To see a world in a grain of sand
            And a heaven in a wild flower,
            Hold infinity in the palm of your hand
            And eternity in an hour.
          
          —William Blake, Auguries of Innocence
       
          codr7 wrote 18 hours 49 min ago:
          Reminds me of Hemingway's The Old Man and the Sea :)
       
          _def wrote 19 hours 12 min ago:
          Sounds like the woo-woo paid off
       
          cbracketdash wrote 21 hours 13 min ago:
          I think there is a fine balance to this. I agree that going through
          life by experiencing as much as possible is futile. But on the other
          hand, spending all your time in thought is also problematic since
          your ideas never clash with reality.
          
          E.g. see the "Open Door Policy" from Hamming's research talk:
          
   URI    [1]: https://gwern.net/doc/science/1986-hamming#open-door-policy
       
        haburka wrote 23 hours 35 min ago:
        Imagine being a lumberjack and wood literally changed its properties
        every few years due to updates. They would be so pissed.
        
        Or if you came into a construction job and the guy who was building
        stairs did not understand gravity, and was just using an AI to guide
        him.
        
        Finally you’re working on a house and whenever you set up your
        drywall, it just does nothing. Turns out you were setting up drywall on
        the other side of the house. Common mistake.
        
        Programming isn’t like carpentry - it’s closer to magical
        carpentry.
       
        dang wrote 23 hours 38 min ago:
        Related. Others?
        
        Reality has a surprising amount of detail (2017) - [1] - Nov 2023 (136
        comments)
        
        Reality has a surprising amount of detail - [2] - June 2023 (1 comment)
        
        Reality has a surprising amount of detail (2017) - [3] - Dec 2021 (118
        comments)
        
        Reality has a surprising amount of detail (2017) - [4] - July 2021 (1
        comment)
        
        Reality has a surprising amount of detail (2017) - [5] - Jan 2020 (115
        comments)
        
        Reality has a surprising amount of detail (2017) - [6] - Jan 2018 (294
        comments)
        
   URI  [1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38407851
   URI  [2]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36309597
   URI  [3]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=29429385
   URI  [4]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28006256
   URI  [5]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22020495
   URI  [6]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16184255
       
          demaga wrote 4 hours 59 min ago:
          What happened to the post from a couple of days ago?
       
          wbakst wrote 22 hours 17 min ago:
          it's quite a good read, i'm not surprised it's been posted so many
          times!
       
            rashkov wrote 15 hours 31 min ago:
            I’ve seen it posted multiple times but only just read it for the
            first time. There’s value in repetition, and as it turns out I
            enjoyed the content quite a bit!
       
          ramon156 wrote 23 hours 7 min ago:
          Its a yearly tradition!
       
        calimoro78 wrote 23 hours 42 min ago:
        a.k.a "Humans are unsurprisingly such simpletons when forming their
        mental model of reality, and always oversimplify."
       
          EvanAnderson wrote 23 hours 28 min ago:
          There's the reasonable amount of oversimplification necessary to just
          get through life, then there's actively trying to oversimplify
          because it makes life "easier".
          
          I judge people very harshly based on whether they accept reality as
          complex or rail against it. I am not proud that I do it, but it seems
          like it has value.
          
          I feel like strong yearnings for simplicity (and willingness to
          ignore messy reality) correlates with people who are unpleasant to
          have in my life. So many "simplicity-oriented" people are happy to
          burden others with "the details" but are unwilling to actually "pay"
          others to bear that burden. They're pretty vile people.
          
          Edit: The people who recognize the value in offloading complexity and
          do "pay" (often handsomely) and are the best Customers to have. I've
          had some really rewarding financial and personal relationships with
          people who recognize their offloading complexity is a service you
          provide.
       
            majkinetor wrote 22 hours 16 min ago:
            ~ i feel like strong yearnings for simplicity (and willingness to
            ignore messy reality) correlates with people who are unpleasant to
            have in my life.
            
            Wow man, I like this so much. I feel it strongly
       
            samwise135 wrote 22 hours 40 min ago:
            Reading Ian McGilchrist’s “Master and his Emissary” has been
            incredibly eye opening on this theme.
            
            Oversimplification and getting upset with the world when it
            doesn’t fit your model of it is definitely a poor character trait
            —- which is nevertheless unfortunately trained and rewarded in
            our schools and much of our professional work.
            
            The world is what it is and there are some helpful abstractions for
            navigating it, but don’t be upset when your model fails as it
            always will.
       
              nuancebydefault wrote 20 hours 21 min ago:
              Indeed, often when we humans are upset about something, we later
              understand things better. Then comes that aha moment in which we
              see we were jumping to conclusions.
       
              bobson381 wrote 22 hours 8 min ago:
              I was hoping this would get mentioned! I heard a podcast with him
              and was enthralled. Are his interpretations and outlook on this
              considered "valid" by the scientific community? I've been
              intrigued but curious about how seriously he's taken.
       
        djsavvy wrote 23 hours 57 min ago:
        One of my favorite blog posts of all time.
       
          firebirdn99 wrote 23 hours 42 min ago:
          its a pretty great realization to come along. We are all stardust,
          but complicated bits and blobs of atoms and molecules.
       
        NotYourLawyer wrote 1 day ago:
        This is such a good post. I’m sad the blog hasn’t been updated in
        years.
       
        unsui wrote 1 day ago:
        This is what frustrates me to no end, re what's going on with DOGE and
        the indistriminant shutting off of legacy systems.
        
        As Joel Spolsky once commented, , all non-trivial abstractions are, to
        some degree, leaky.
        
        This is because reality itself is leaky.  Or another way to put it,
        reality itself is non-trivially complex.
        
        And any sufficiently long-lived production system that works at scale
        necessarily has to accommodate that complexity, to some degree.
        
        Yes, some of these systems are sub-optimal, but nonetheless, they work,
        to the extent that they are production systems.
        
        And, as anyone who has worked on legacy production systems, that
        complexity is itself mired in complexity, often due to weird edge and
        corner cases that reflect the complexity of the world that the system
        is attuned to.
        
        And then, to come in with the mentality of a cocky intern with
        delusions of grandeur and simply shut off these systems
        indiscriminantly.....
        
        and yes, I am asserting that this is being done indiscriminantly.
        
        It is foolish on a scale I can't fathom, as an engineer who appreciates
        the complexity of systems beyond my level of comprehension.  Organic
        systems that have grown to accomodate reality, warts and all.
        
        And to simply shut things off, indiscriminantly, is beyond foolish.  It
        is reckless, and eventually, as the body count rises, evil.
       
          paulddraper wrote 23 hours 52 min ago:
          > Organic systems that have grown to accomodate reality
          
          No argument.
          
          But is that reality public service? Or something else?
       
          investguy1 wrote 1 day ago:
          In 1800, the government of the USA spent 2% of GDP.
          
          In 2020, the government of the USA spent 30% of GDP.
          
          In 2024, the government of France spent 57% of GDP.
          
          Are the people of 2024 France really getting 28x the value from their
          government as 1800 USA?
          
          It is not evil to ask these questions or to experiment with
          government,
          
          And more people should consider backing off from political-media
          consumption as it is clearly toxic to the soul.
          
          The reality that counts most is the one around you, and I see far too
          many people destroying their relationships with family, friends, and
          colleagues over national politics when there are much bigger fish to
          fry in one's own garden.
       
            kelnos wrote 5 hours 10 min ago:
            > It is not evil to ask these questions or to experiment with
            government
            
            Asking these questions is fine -- good and necessary even.  But the
            evil comes when one of your reckless experiments shuts down an
            agency that's providing medical care to HIV-positive pregnant women
            in Africa, and when their babies are born during the disruption, we
            find that they have contracted their mothers' HIV, because of that
            missing medical care.
            
            This is just one example among many.  It's not hyperbole to suggest
            that people will die because of what DOGE is doing.
            
            > Are the people of 2024 France really getting 28x the value from
            their government as 1800 USA?
            
            I think that's a very easy "yes".
       
            PhasmaFelis wrote 12 hours 37 min ago:
            > And more people should consider backing off from political-media
            consumption as it is clearly toxic to the soul.
            
            Destroying the government services that allow disabled people to
            get healthcare and other basic needs is toxic to my literal,
            physical body.
            
            You're talking like this is all a genteel philosophical
            disagreement. People are going to die.
       
            GuB-42 wrote 22 hours 50 min ago:
            It is not the right question to ask. 28x is a number that doesn't
            make sense.
            
            For example, you are in a restaurant, you can drink tap water for
            free, or sparkling water for $3, is sparkling water infinitely
            better than tap water? Infinity doesn't exist in the real world,
            but the real world has plenty of people drinking $3 sparkling
            water, which tells us that the reasoning is broken.
            
            A more sensible reasoning would be: would you get better value by
            paying 55% (57%-2%=55%) of your income to "upgrade" from a 1800 US
            government to a 2024 France government, or you are better off doing
            something else with that money.
       
            myrmidon wrote 23 hours 52 min ago:
            I'll bite. Lets break the highest number down, Fermi-style.
            
            => 30% social services
            
            => 10% military and education
            
            => 10% healthcare
            
            Leaves 10% for infrastructure (road/rail), governmental services
            (police, regulation of trade, traffic, construction),
            damage-control for innovations like leaded gas, CFCs, asbestos. And
            of course overhead to run the whole thing.
            
            I'd honestly say thats not really a bad deal. Are there gonna be
            inefficiencies in the whole apparatus? For sure! But getting rid of
            those services, and trying to do this personally with the taxes you
            saved strikes me as completely infeasible.
            
            edit: forgot research (CERN, ITER, etc.), which would be
            particularly tricky to fund privately.
            
            PS: I was initially skeptical myself, and expected double digit
            percentages of unclear worth. But actually breaking this down gave
            me strong Monthy Python ("what have the romans ever done for us")
            vibes, and now I think that your point is much worse than it looks
            first glance (still don't understand why it would get flagged,
            though).
       
            vlunkr wrote 1 day ago:
            I’m sure there are optimizations to be made, but DOGE is acting
            like an insufferable greenie dev who wants to slash and burn
            without understanding the system or having acquired any wisdom
            about maintaining and refactoring complex systems.
       
            bbddg wrote 1 day ago:
            Thanks for your input "investguy1"
       
            marcosdumay wrote 1 day ago:
            > Are the people of 2024 France really getting 28x the value from
            their government as 1800 USA?
            
            Very likely, yes.
            
            Who was the last person close to you that died after buying
            poisoned food?
       
            EGreg wrote 1 day ago:
            Poverty dropped tremendously in the 20th century, perhaps that has
            to do with government spending? [1] There are diminishing returns,
            though
            
   URI      [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welfare%27s_effect_on_povert...
       
              peterfirefly wrote 21 hours 51 min ago:
              Or vastly increased productivity -- that also had increasingly
              less to do with land ownership?  Life used to suck if you didn't
              own land (or were one of the lucky few who could work as a
              merchant, a craftsman, a priest, a government official, etc). 
              Effectively all of Europe had too little land for all its
              recorded history.
       
            fumar wrote 1 day ago:
            What are you comparing from 1800? You listed zero qualifiers?
       
            gchamonlive wrote 1 day ago:
            That question isn't being asked, though. And if you think the DOGE
            is being transparent with this reform you are either naive or
            misinformed.
       
            daedrdev wrote 1 day ago:
            France has a massive welfare state and pension system (which is
            causing a crisis as they cant afford it in the long run). People
            probably are getting 28x more from the government than before those
            existed.
       
              codr7 wrote 18 hours 48 min ago:
              I'm pretty sure they're paying for it though.
       
                jspash wrote 26 min ago:
                Yes, everyone pays taxes into the system. But don't think for a
                moment that when musk et.al. are done with their purge that
                your tax rate will magicaly plummet to 2%. It's going to either
                stay the same or go up. Unless you are in the 1%. In which
                case, you can start your celebration now.
       
            BoiledCabbage wrote 1 day ago:
            > In 2020, the government of the USA spent 30% of GDP.
            
            Interesting that you specifically chose a covid year. In 2024
            spending was 23%. The 50 year average of spending a percentage of
            GDP is 21%.[1]
            
            Yet again, anyone who believes that we have some crazy out of line
            spending right now is in a media/propaganda echo chamber.
            
            And if anyone believes that hacking apart our country under the
            guise of "cutting spending" again is falling for the same playbook.
            What is being done is not at all driven by cutting spending, that's
            just the justification bring put forward - any amount of looking
            into what's being done, vs what's is claimed is being done makes
            that obvious.
            
            The echo chamber that had been created is out of control at this
            pointas somehow a significant number of people believe what is
            being said.
            
   URI      [1]: https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60843/html#:~:text=In%20to...
       
            zht wrote 1 day ago:
            yes? is this a serious question?
       
            jebarker wrote 1 day ago:
            > It is not evil to ask these questions or to experiment with
            government
            
            I don't think anyone has a problem with the question being asked.
            It's the non-scientific method of experimentation that is troubling
            people.
       
              kimixa wrote 23 hours 55 min ago:
              And the clear bias in the presentation of numbers in the
              "question".
              
              What people called the "Government" provided rather different
              things 200 years ago, let alone issues with defining a comparable
              "GDP" in such different environments.
       
                jebarker wrote 20 hours 16 min ago:
                Did you mean to reply to me? I don't see how this counters what
                I said. If you mean to imply that the questions use of
                statistics is a comparable problem to the current "government
                experiment" then I don't agree.
       
                  kimixa wrote 19 hours 23 min ago:
                  No, I was intending to build upon what you said that the
                  question likely isn't actually being asked in good faith,
                  instead an attempt to "anchor" readers into the assumptions
                  it makes rather than really examine the answer, and people
                  may indeed then have issues with it.
                  
                  To really design experiments we really need to be asking
                  meaningful questions about comparable metrics, after all.
       
                    jebarker wrote 19 hours 16 min ago:
                    Ah, I see. Yes, I agree.
       
            radiospiel wrote 1 day ago:
            > Are the people of 2024 France really getting 28x the value from
            their government as 1800 USA?
            
            oh but certainly. Healthcare, social security, education, … just
            to name a few
       
              bluGill wrote 1 day ago:
              The question was 28x though. Not just are you getting more value,
              but is the value 28 times more.  This is not clear, and probably
              answerable. Health care is very different between now and 1800
              (in 1800 your lifespan was measurably better if you didn't go to
              a doctor ever - this was before handwashing and antibiotics). 
              Even if you compare today, France and the US have many
              differences in the current system and so you can argue things
              either way and we learn more about your bias than any truth
              (there are pros and cons of both systems so all conclusions). 
              Both todays are very different from either in 1800, and we have
              no way of knowing how either would be different.
       
                BobaFloutist wrote 1 day ago:
                I think probably the slaves in 1800, whose experience of the
                government was its violent enforcement of their sub-human
                status would probably find the protection of their civil rights
                in 2024 France to be quite a bit more than 28x as valuable,
                yes.
                
                I think the women who couldn't independently own property, had
                no protections against marital rape, being beat by their
                husbands, or most any other form of abuse would agree that even
                the comparitively tepid protections offered by modern France
                are priceless in comparison.
                
                I think children forced to labor without pay, homosexuals
                forced into hiding, Native Americans kidnapped from their
                parents and forced into boarding schools, and any number of
                other now-protected classes would also agree.
                
                Sure, if the government only serves a small fraction of the
                population at the expense of all others, that small fraction
                can debateably get comparitively good value. But it sure sucks
                for literally everyone else.
       
                  peterfirefly wrote 21 hours 55 min ago:
                  How much of that required a bigger state?
                  
                  The end of slavery was really due to slavery being
                  uneconomic.  That's why the Northern states didn't have
                  slavery.  It would have ended in the South as well, even
                  without the Civil War (which was a kind of big state thing,
                  of course).
                  
                  Children forced to labour without pay -- also an economic
                  issue.
       
                    nuancebydefault wrote 19 hours 57 min ago:
                    Even though US is more wealthy than Europe, the average
                    European seems struggling much less than their US
                    counterpart. Just have a look at poverty, homelessness,
                    health figures, even of educated people.
                    
                    The latest votes, and your comment, only seem to indicate 
                    that US people on average find that to be fine enough, the
                    price for a (for me weird) kind of freedom.
       
                      bluGill wrote 19 hours 1 min ago:
                      Perception is not reality.  People complain all the time.
                       People will always spend the most they can get by with. 
                      There are people earning $million/year who have less
                      spending money after paying their monthly bills (to spend
                      on things like food) than others living below the poverty
                      line.  This is all about how they spend money, the person
                      making $million/year is clearly rich, but if they are
                      still having trouble making ends meet.
       
                immibis wrote 1 day ago:
                Percentages don't really work like that. 56% of one number
                isn't 28 times 2% of a different number. And it's not even the
                right number. GDP measures rate of number flow, not rate of
                benefit flow, or amount of benefit.
                
                It's also noteworthy how people ask this question about the
                government but never ask it about private corporations.
       
                gerardvivancos wrote 1 day ago:
                Asking the question with the provided data is too simplistic to
                even argue about.
                
                "Here's the non contextualized percentages, what do you think
                of the difference between this two percentages which are more
                than two centuries apart, and from different countries?"
       
            Trasmatta wrote 1 day ago:
            > there are much bigger fish to fry in one's own garden.
            
            Here's a pretty large fish to fry: the breakdown of democracy, and
            a shift towards autocracy and dictatorship.
            
            This is a fish that affects everyone's gardens, like it or not.
       
          zanellato19 wrote 1 day ago:
          Yeah, Chesterton’s Fence is simply not a principle that people like
          Elon pay attention to. Sometimes for the better, mostly for the
          worse, specially when taking over something that's already there.
       
        coliveira wrote 1 day ago:
        The universe seems to have a fractal structure. At every scale we can
        look there is a huge amount of detail.
       
          Terr_ wrote 16 hours 46 min ago:
          I'd be cautious about the word "fractal" misleading us into looking
          for a scale-spanning pattern that dictates both large and small
          details simultaneously.
          
          Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar, and fine features occur for
          different reasons than coarse features.
       
            wruza wrote 7 hours 46 min ago:
             [1] (3B1B: Fractals are typically not self-similar)
            
   URI      [1]: https://youtube.com/watch?v=gB9n2gHsHN4
       
            andrewflnr wrote 15 hours 6 min ago:
            > fine features occur for different reasons than coarse features
            
            Important point. This makes reality even less tractable than a
            fractal, by a solid margin!
       
          ninetyninenine wrote 19 hours 19 min ago:
          Not true at all there’s limits in terms of scale in both
          directions.
       
            efilife wrote 11 hours 6 min ago:
            There is limits?
       
          doug_durham wrote 19 hours 42 min ago:
          How much of that is new detail versus repeated patterns?   A good
          approximation of all human visual reality fits in a 5GB diffusion
          model.
       
          bee_rider wrote 19 hours 49 min ago:
          What does it mean for the universe to have a fractal nature, other
          than that  it looks more detailed the closer you look?
          
          I mean, I think it is very poetic to suppose the universe has some
          sort of underlying fractal structure. But… perhaps the universe
          just looks like it has a fractal structure because the finest details
          are pretty small relative to us. At the bottom, the atoms, electrons,
          and quarks are more like potentials anyway, right?
          
          They don’t have solid surfaces anyway. Maybe we can plot the
          potential fields in a way that makes them look like fractals? But…
          my modern physics, fields and waves, and even my mathematical
          understanding of fractals are all a bit rusty (so, what am I even
          doing in this conversation? Oh well), but shouldn’t the potential
          fields eventually be smooth at some point? And fractals are not very
          smooth.
          
          Therefore I conclude the universe doesn’t have a fractal structure,
          it is just very small. But that isn’t poetic at all. :(
       
          lotharcable wrote 23 hours 42 min ago:
          The other problem is that all the details matter all the time.
          
          Like if you want to mathematically model what happens in a pool table
          hall when somebody strikes a ball with a great deal of force... by
          the time you get to the six or seventh bounce you are going to have
          to start to take into account the position and movement of people
          standing around the table watching it. The airflow, the vibration of
          them moving, the relative gravitational forces, etc. It all matters
          all the time.
          
          And the problem only gets worse the larger the scale and longer the
          timelines.
          
          Like if you want to manage a economy.
          
          It is tempting to want to look at "things from a high level" and
          imagine that all the details just kinda average themselves out.  So
          it isn't necessary to figure out the behavior of each individual in a
          national economy. It should be possible to simply plot out the
          results of their decision making over time and extrapolate that into
          the future to come up with meaningful policy decisions and 5 year
          plans.
          
          The problem is that that doesn't work. Because all the details matter
          all the time.
          
          Also the very act of making policies causes changes in the behavior
          economy in wildly unpredictable manners. Every individual actor
          involved is going to change their behavior and decision making based
          on your decision making, which then changes the behavior and decision
          making of every other individual, etc etc. In a endless fractal
          involving billions of actors, since your national economy is not
          isolated from the forces of every other economy and visa versa.
          
          Also trying to make targets out of measurements and indicators tends
          to destroy the value of the measurements and indicators. Meaning that
          by setting policies you are destroying the information you are basing
          your decisions off of.
          
          So you can't collect enough information to make good decisions. The
          information you receive is already obsolete by the time you get it.
          And the act of trying to create rules and policies based on the
          information you do have tends to destroy what little value it has
          left.
       
            nativeit wrote 21 hours 56 min ago:
            …and that’s all before you get into all the other logical
            fallacies that tend to compromise one’s perspective. Anything
            that requires anticipating and/or interpreting the behaviors of
            other people, or that involves accounting for risks or
            probabilities—these are especially fraught as our own instincts
            and nature actively works to warp objective reality.
            
            In the context of policy making (or presidential fiat, as the case
            may be), there is always the risk of mistaking what people should
            do with what they will do. A pragmatic strategy for success will
            include systems that can help to thwart the worst impulses of our
            flawed reasoning, including things like dispassionate peer reviewed
            analyses (oops) that is untethered by the ambitions or ideologies
            of individual people or groups (oops), a diverse array of advisory
            opinions (oops), functional checks on monolithic authority (oops),
            and mechanisms for correcting prior mistakes (fingers crossed).
            
            I think this all contributes to the phenomenon that folks have (a
            bit erroneously) associated with the Dunning-Kruger
            effect—essentially the idea that people who haven’t learned
            enough to know how much they don’t know are dangerously
            overconfident and naive. That said, I think there is a tendency to
            assume this about others that’s probably fallacious in and of
            itself. In the case of current events, I don’t believe the
            individuals involved actually care enough to have even mounted the
            left peak of the Dunning-Kruger chart, but rather are fully
            uninformed and unconcerned with much of any implications outside of
            their own very narrow ideological ends (it’s probably more
            accurate to apply Dunning-Kruger to the ideology itself, or maybe
            the broader coalition of partisan cohorts who share it, than it is
            the people wielding it).
       
            bobson381 wrote 23 hours 32 min ago:
            You sound like you would really enjoy the book Seeing Like a State:
            How Certain Schemes to Improve the Human Condition Have failed.
            
            I wonder if a lot of this comes back to the enlightenment/science-y
            way of looking at the world that imagines that the way to
            understand stuff is to break it into subproblems, solve those, and
            build back up from there. It relies on a fundamental assumption
            that there are separate things instead of a big continuous process
            of happening. I recently read about a study where participants were
            asked to pick the best car for a set of needs, and were given 4
            variables per car in one case, and 16 variables per car in another.
            Then, each group was either distracted while pondering, or allowed
            to think through it directly/consciously. The conscious thought
            group did better than distracted group did when there were 4
            variables, but worse when there were more. Intuition is great at
            the missable details.
       
          go_elmo wrote 1 day ago:
          Maybe its not due to the universe but our perception of it?
       
            chrisweekly wrote 23 hours 44 min ago:
            That presupposes a distinction between the universe and the
            observer. The idea that any such distinction is an illusion is both
            ancient and profound. (Perhaps even obvious, at least in the
            abstract.)
       
              glenstein wrote 21 hours 35 min ago:
              I think it can be charitably interpreted to mean, for everyday
              purposes, however much you "zoom in" on something, there's
              meaningful details at lower and lower resolutions until you've
              exhausted your focus or ability to zoom.
       
            saxenauts wrote 1 day ago:
            why is our perception and the way it works different from the
            universe?
            
            with enough agency, and ignoring everything else in the world you
            realize that your perception is all there is, that you can ever be
            sure of.
            
            There is no universe, there is no quantum physics. Those are just
            models, your perception models them.
       
              netdevphoenix wrote 23 hours 46 min ago:
              Surely, keeping a 1:1 match between our perception of the
              universe and the universe itself is a kind of order that would be
              constantly under threat by the inexorable move towards increasing
              entropy. The lack of match either now or in the future is what
              you would expect. Chaos is the expect state, order is the
              exception. Hence you should not expect for that match to exist by
              default
       
                nuancebydefault wrote 20 hours 28 min ago:
                I read recently an article on HN that basically entropy (and
                hence increase thereof) is just a statistical model of
                uncertainty of the things we don't know. As soon as our
                understanding (of e.g. positions and velocity of individual
                molecules) increases, that what we call entropy, decreases. At
                least my understanding.
       
                bloomingkales wrote 23 hours 40 min ago:
                You can be born with your perception. For example, opposite
                sexes generally attract and you don’t really have to teach
                this. We’re born to see things the same, but somehow we work
                to obstruct this by modding our perception. When one person
                mods their perception, they become god (  a creator). For
                example, you aren’t the tallest one in the room but you see
                yourself as that. You create a reality, and this is something
                people are addicted to and causes all the harm in the world
                (someone is manipulating our shared perception with their lie).
                
                Reality is a repository that we must all be good maintainers
                of. Beware the false PR (delusions).
                
                Which brings me to the the author’s article. Many creatures
                on earth, past and present, omit or ignore all the little
                details. They live a lie that is just as intricate as the
                details. Details matter if the details matter to you. Humans
                are world builders, and they will reshape the details to see
                what they want. So will a snake, its own tail can look like its
                food if necessary.
       
                  codr7 wrote 18 hours 53 min ago:
                  Where's the proof that humans of opposite sex are
                  intrinsically attracted to each other? I can't see it.
       
                    bloomingkales wrote 17 hours 48 min ago:
                    Exactly. I got no clue who taught most of the billions of
                    people this is the way.
       
          Trasmatta wrote 1 day ago:
          One thing I find interesting is the apparent "End of Greatness". It
          seems like the fractal nature of reality has both an upper and lower
          bound?
          
          > The End of Greatness is an observational scale discovered at
          roughly 100 Mpc (roughly 300 million light-years) where the lumpiness
          seen in the large-scale structure of the universe is homogenized and
          isotropized in accordance with the cosmological principle. At this
          scale, no pseudo-random fractalness is apparent.
          
   URI    [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Observable_universe#End_of_Gre...
       
            jandrese wrote 20 hours 52 min ago:
            Possible, but since that scale is so far outside of human
            experience it is possible there is detail there that we are unable
            to perceive using our most modern techniques.
       
            metalman wrote 1 day ago:
            Its not just the(possible) fractal nature of the universes
            structure,it is that the composition of idividual portions varries,
            and those portions react differently to the forces bieng exerted on
            them.
             And then at the fine level, is it the same to accelerated by a
            gravitational force, as it is to be accelerated by a magnetic one,
            of course not.
             We have layers of complexity, and it is quite beyond any imagining
            or quantifying.
             Luckily our aproximations will get a sandwich made or soup,it
            might be better for pondering the universe, as it can be stired to
            make little swirly fractals.
       
        TZubiri wrote 1 day ago:
        The world is complex, yes
       
       
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