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lite.cnn.com - on gopher - inofficial
ARTICLE VIEW:
Opinion: 5 critical takeaways from Iran’s attack on Israel
Opinion by Frida Ghitis
Updated:
1:32 PM EDT, Tue April 16, 2024
Source: CNN
It was a night when the world stood on edge. Iran’s rulers decided to
rip off the cover behind which they have spent decades attacking Israel
and others indirectly, and instead of using one of their proxy militias
they made the move themselves, openly, launching — cruise
missiles, ballistic missiles, explosive-laden drones — toward
Israel, the country they have repeatedly vowed to destroy.
The next chapter of this conflict is still being written, but already
the event has left us with important lessons and looming questions.
1. If Israel’s defensive shield had failed, thousands of Israelis
could have been killed, and the world today would find itself in a
major regional war.
It’s impossible to overstate just how cataclysmic the Islamic
Republic’s weekend attack could have become. The indelible image of
Iranian missiles intercepted over Jerusalem, the golden cupula of
the , over al-Aqsa Mosque and the Temple Mount — the site of the
biblical Temple in Jerusalem — as well as other landmarks tracing the
life and death of Jesus, stood as a warning of the intensity of what
Iran might have unleashed.
Miraculously, by a feat of military technology bolstered by
coordination with friends and allies, Israel the massive attack. The
only reported injury on the ground was a young Arab Israeli girl .
Anyone who claims Iran was only seeking to inflict a symbolic show of
force is ignoring the facts. Iran could have killed thousands of
civilians. If it had, the world would look very different today; a
major regional conflagration would likely be raging now with worldwide
reverberations.
Iran justified its attack as a response to an against an annex to
its embassy in Damascus, which killed top commanders of its Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps. Israel denied the building was a diplomatic
facility and has not acknowledged carrying out the hit, but US
officials believe it did. have been working with Iran-allied
Hezbollah, which has , when Hamas launched an attack from Gaza.
Thousands as the attack made parts of Israel unlivable.
Tehran’s hypocritical indignation at what it frames as a violation of
its diplomatic protections brings to mind the many occasions when
Tehran’s proxies have massacred civilians, blowing up American and
Israeli embassies as and . (Iran denies involvement.)
2. What if Iran’s missiles and drones had carried nuclear material?
It’s the stuff of nightmares. Watching the skies over Israel —
and before that over Jordan, Iraq and Iran — streak with flying
objects laden with explosives, it was impossible to ignore that Iran is
close to its . (It denies it wants nuclear weapons.) Iran could build
a nuclear weapon in short order, but even before a bomb is ready, even
before it builds one or buys it from, say, North Korea, it could use
inside a conventional weapon. Shooting it down would bring radioactive
material to the ground.
This is an inescapable reality that reminds us why a country that has
built a network of proxy militias, that and even in exile, is not
just a threat to the freedom of Iranians and the survival and of its
neighbors. It’s a challenge for the entire world.
3. The unimaginable is not a theory. It can happen. It does.
Israel and Iran have fought a shadow war for decades. The notion that
one day Iran would launch a direct attack against Israel may have
seemed like a distant possibility: something that was bound to happen,
but only at some elusive future date. The same was true of Hamas, a
terrorist group that seized control of Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu thought he and preserve quiet in Gaza and safety
for Israelis living in the south. Others worried that one day Hamas
would attack with full force. Many have worried that Iran will one day
attack with full force. and are reminders that the unimaginable,
the barely-imaginable, can and does happen.
4. The war in Gaza is about more than Gaza, about more than a
Palestinian state.
In the midst of the calamity that has befallen the people on both sides
of the Israel-Gaza border and in light of the immense human suffering
— more than 1,200 Israelis killed, hostages and tens of thousands
killed in Gaza including women and children — it’s easy to overlook
the larger forces at play in the Israel-Hamas war. The Middle East is
in the throes of a regional conflict, a major geopolitical battle in
which Iran is a major player — the major player. Iran has made it
possible for Hamas to . Iran all but created , now the dominant force
in Lebanon. Iran in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. And it views not
only Israel but many of its Arab neighbors as rivals and foes.
5. Israel is not isolated; Iran is.
Iran does have its satellites and proxies, and it has become a weapons
supplier to Russia in its war . But the night Iran attacked Israel it
revealed its own isolation. Israelis are basking in the rare and
reassuring discovery that much of the world does support them, at least
at this moment.
As the missiles took aim at Israel, a grand coalition mobilized. The
verbal backing spanned the globe. to world leaders condemned
Iran. An emergency virtual meeting of the G7 expressed “ to Israel
and its people,” condemning Iran “in the strongest terms.” UN
Secretary General Antonio Guterres “” Iran’s actions.
More importantly, Israel received military and tactical backing. Even
though Israel shot down the overwhelming majority of the projectiles,
the , and the helped shoot down some of the hundreds of drones
headed for Israel. More significantly, that it, too, seeing its
airspace violated, intercepted Iranian drones.
There are multiple reports that other Arab countries also participated.
The Wall Street Journal reported that several countries agreed to pass
intelligence and radar tracking information and, “in some cases,
to help.” Saudi Arabia — Iran’s longtime rival — and the
United Arab Emirates agreed to supply intelligence, according to the
report.
In addition, the US was able to work out of its bases in Qatar and
northern Iraq to counter Iran’s attack.
The question now is how Israel responds. Benny Gantz, a member of the
war cabinet formed after the Hamas attack, said Israel will “exact a
price from Iran that suits us.”
Biden wants Israel to “take the win,” and move on. The of
Netanyahu’s coalition, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National
Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who are not in the war cabinet, want
more drastic action. In the US, former National Security Advisor John
Bolton told CNN that this is an opportunity for Israel to “ weapons
program, which is the existential threat Israel faces.”
This is, however, another opportunity for Israel, a chance to rebuild
some of the ties that have become frayed during the devastating war
with Hamas.
The Iranian attack has revealed that Israel does have friends,
including some in very important places: across the Middle East. The
Islamic Republic just reminded the entire Middle East, the entire
world, that it can upend expectations and launch a reckless,
potentially catastrophic attack.
Israel should use the moment to fortify its links with Arab neighbors
who despise and distrust Iran. That could go a long way in protecting
the entire region against Iran, but also in carving a path forward that
includes a stable Gaza, one that is not in the hands of one of Iran’s
extremist proxies, opening the possibility to more stability and, just
maybe, lasting peace.
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